bearsBefore I get to my Super Bowl pick, I decided to give myself a small pat on the back for getting a few things right about the playoffs way back in September:
I had Philadelphia beating the Giants at home in the wild card round...which actually happened.
I had Indianapolis beating Kansas City at home in the second round...only one week late.
I had Indianapolis beating New England at home in the AFC title game...which actually happened.
I just needed to stick to my guns instead of changing everything these last few weeks. Nonetheless, on we go to the big game.
Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Colts win, 27-13.
The toughest part of predicting this matchup is trying to figure out what type of a game it will be. Chicago obviously wants a low-scoring defensive struggle whereas the Colts want a track meet. Who will be able to dictate the pace?
What it comes down to is Indy's Cover 2 defense. This defense is built to stop big plays; the defensive backs are taught to keep evertything in front of them. This applies to Chicago because the Bears offense is only effective when they can make big plays down the field. Rex cannot beat a team trying to dink and dunk his way down the field, he just is not consistently accurate with his throws. Without the ability to get the ball deep to Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhhamad, Chicago's offense will struggle against the Colts' surprisingsly stingy run defense.
Of course, the matchup everyone really cares about is Indy's offense against Chicago's defense. Last week the Colts scored 38 points against a New England defense that had always shut him down in the past. Here are some interesting comparisons between New England's defense and Chicago's defense during the regular season:
-Chicago gave up an average of 99 rush yards and 195 pass yards
per game.
New England gave up an average of 94 rush yards per game and
200 pass yards per game.
-Chicago gave up a total of 258 first downs: 77 rushing, 159
passing, and 22 due to penalty.
New England gave up a total of 264 first downs: 67 rushing, 164
passing, 33 on penalties.
-Chicago had 24 interceptions.
New England had 22 interceptions.
Those seem to be some pretty similar numbers. On top of all of that, Chicago's pass rush will be limited without Tommie Harris while their pass defense tries to cope without veteran Pro Bowler Mike Brown. All of that adds up to Peyton at least having a good day. Combine that with a defense that picks of two passes and Peyton gets his first Super Bowl.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
