playoffsFootball season is over and the NBA is getting ready for the stretch run after the All-Star break. So, what a great time to offer my musings on what has happened so far and what might happen leading up to the playoffs.
First and foremost, the Atlantic division is the worst division I have ever seen in any sport (the NL West the last couple of year is a close second). It is a situation like this that makes me want the League abandon its current seeding format. The discussion started last year when Dallas was the 4 seed, even though they had the second best record, because San Antonio won the division. Under that format the Atlantic division would have the 3 seed. If, instead, the league seeded the teams based purely on record, they would be the 4 seed. It may not seem like a big difference, but it would result in Cleveland (who is second in their division behind Detroit, but has a better record than division leaders Washington and Toronto) playing against Orlando instead of Indiana, a much easier matchup. On top of this, it means the top two teams will play one another in the Conference title game rather than the second round.
Second, Gilbert Arenas is not a leader. A leader doesn't go out with the intention of scoring 50 points out of spite for the other coach. A leader goes out looking for the win. What Arenas doesn't seem to realize is that his team is leading its division and, in a weak Eastern Conference, has a legitimate shot at reaching the Finals. If he did, he wouldn't care about his points. He wouldn't care about other coaches. He would care about wins. Just look at Washington's loss to Portland last Monday. Arenas, for weeks leading up to the game, ran his mouth about putting up 50 out of revenge because Nate McMillan, the Portland coach, was an assistant for Team USA this summer--from which Arenas was cut. Washington lost 94-73 to a team with a 22-30 record. Arenas' numbers for the game: 3-15 FGs (0-8 3pts), 2 assists, 5 turnovers, 9 points. If a team leader is having a bad game, which Arenas clearly was, he passes the ball. A team leader knows his shots aren't falling, so he should find someone whose shots are falling. Instead, Arenas had more than twice as many turnovers (5) as assists (2). "Agent Zero" only cares about himself and his own number, which is a shame because he really is a great player.
The Miami Heat proved last year, and are proving again this year, that the regular season is too damn long. The reigning champs have half-assed it all year and are sitting on a .500 record. Come season's end, they will probably win their division and settle into a nice 2 seed. If the NBA wants to see Shaq play in the regular season, they should shorten it by 20 games.
Steve Nash deserves the MVP. He shoots .536 on field goals (best among all guards). He shoots .49 from behind the arc (second in the league). He averages almost 12 assists per game (2.6 more per game than second best) and has an assist-turnover ratio of better than 3:1. And he puts up over 19 points per game. What is irritating is that the main argument against his winning his third straight MVP is that it will be his thrid straight MVP. For some reason, a lot of people have been taking his previous awards into account while considering his play for this season. Last I checked, the MVP only lasts for one season and there is no limit on how many a person can win.
Houston is replacing San Antonio deep in the heart of Texas. For years San Antonio has dominated the state with a dominant big man and stifling defense. Unfortunately, they seem to be in a steady decline. Tim Duncan is 30 years-old in his 10th season with his best years behind him. They can be a solid team with Duncan past his prime, but this is their last chance to contend for the title. Houston, on the other hand, is sliding right into the spot the Spurs are vacating. Yao is only 26 years-old and has gotten used to the style of play in the NBA (averaging almost 26 points and 10 rebounds per game this season). They have a coach in Jeff Van Gundy who coached Patrick Ewing for years and knows how to get the most from a dominant big man. They also have that McGrady guy who is pretty darn good (and who Van Gundy didn't have to pair with Ewing in New York). For the next four years Houston is going to be a defensive powerhouse team based on a dominant big man that could win the championship every year...just like San Antonio.
Lastly, my poor Sacramento Kings. My poor, poor Kings. I love them, but the team needs to be blown up. Mike Bibby and Brad Miller are great complimentary players, but without a superstar in his prime (i.e. Chris Webber) they struggle handling the extra pressure. The problem with Miller is that his contract runs for another three seasons after this year is done. Bibby can opt out of his contract, but considering how poorly he has played this year, he isn't going to get more money elsewhere, so he is probably here for two more seasons. Ron Artest has two more years, Shareef Abdur-Rahim has three more years, and so does Kenny Thomas. Those are five of our six most expensive contracts (Corliss Williamson's $6 million comes off the books this offseason). That doesn't even include Kevin Martin who will likely get a fat contract extension this offseason (he only has one more year after this).
Between Bibby, Miller, Thomas, and Abdur-Rahim, two need to be traded. Ideally, we would get rid of Miller and Abdur-Rahim because their deals run longer than Bibby's and in my opinion, they contribute less to the team than Thomas.
Artest needs to go. Every day his trade value dimishes because every day he is one day closer to his next incident. The problem the Kings face is that, no matter how insignificant the incident might be, his history will scare off potential trade partners.
They should keep Mussleman as a sacrificial lamb. He isn't a great coach and he isn't going to lead a team to a title. The roster the Kings currently have can't win a title either. So while firing Mussleman in order to hire a high priced veteran to coach a team to the 10th worst record instead of the 6th worst record (i.e. the Warriors hiring Don Nelson) might seem attractive, it will just be another unnecessary expense. Keep Mussleman until the roster is improved, then bring in a more capable coach.
While the Kings are battling it out for lottery position the rest of the season the good teams will be gearing up for a playoff push. In the West I see Dallas making the Finals again. Their main challengers, of course, will be Phoenix, San Antonio and Houston. When it comes to Phoenix, they look great during the regular season. Their problem is that they get worn out. They probably run an extra mile every game because of the pace at which they play and all of those miles catch up to even the strongest wheels. San Antonio is fading and Houston isn't quite ready to make the jump to title contender (they will next year, mark it down).
As for the East, Detroit is going to roll. Remember when they signed Rasheed Wallace in the middle of the 2003-2004 season? Yeah, they won the title that year. Remember when they signed Chris Webber in the middle of this season? Yeah, they will win the title again this year. They should be able to cruise through the East into the Finals. Their defense isn't as good as it was with Ben Wallace, but their offense is much better. When they face the Heat in the Easter finlas Tayshawn Prince and Rip Hamilton will be able to contain Dwyane Wade and the Pistons have enough big men to foul Shaq all game.
The Finals might actually be easier for Detroit. Rasheed Wallace and Prince have the length and quickness to slow down Dirk Nowitzki. After that, Dallas doesn't have much left. Josh Howard is having a great year, but everythin he and the rest of his teammates get is because of Nowitzki. As for Dallas' defense, well, they aren't good. Oh, and on top of all of this, Detroit beat a healthy Mavs team 92-82 in Dallas earlier this season--before they got Webber.
Some quick picks for the All-Star festivities tonight:
Skills Challenge: Chris Paul, New Orleans
Slam Dunk Contest: Gerald Green, Boston
Three-Point Shootout: Mike Miller, Memphis
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
