fantasyLocks, Busts, and Sleepers
Finally, I have returned. Sorry for the hiatus, but I'm back for the stretch-run in baseball and the start of the football season.
For my comeback column, I'm going with fantasy football at the request of one of my loyal readers.
There is no shortage of rankings out there for fantasy football. The trick always has been and always will be sorting through those rankings and picking out who will fulfill those expectations and who will do nothing but disappoint. And, if you're lucky, maybe pull out a sleeper or two in the later rounds.
A key factor is the scoring system. Unfortunately, this varies from league to league, so these musings might not apply to everyone. However, I will try to note which players will see their value significantly affected by changes in scoring.
Quarterbacks:
Locks
Peyton Manning, IND: He's arguably the most consistent player in fantasy. Most leagues only give 4 points per passing touchdown, but if I were in a league that gave 6 points for touchdown passes, I would seriously consider Manning with the third pick behind LaDanian Tomlinson and Stephen Jackson.
Tom Brady, NE: He threw for 3,529 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last year when his best receiver was Reche Caldwell. Now Caldwell is the fourth receiver behind Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, and Wes Welker. I don't think any of the receivers will be worth the rankings they have been given because Brady spreads the ball around so much, but the new daddy should put up big numbers consistently.
Carson Palmer, CIN: He might have the best year among all of these quarterbacks. Believe it or not, this will only be his fourth year as a starter, and he is only getting better. After a healthy offseason spent working with his receivers (he was rehabbing a knee all of last year and barely made it back for the regular season), he should be ready for a huge season.
Marc Bulger, STL: It pains me to put a Ram up here, but Bulger deserves it. He is ranked fifth or sixth on most boards, but he will have a better season than people expect. Last year, he had 4,301 yards, 24 TDs, and just 8 INTs. And that was in a new offense with a new head coach. The offense didn't lose any key pieces in the offseason while improving the receiving positions with the additions of TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett, both of whom should be effective redzone targets. Expect good, consistent numbers without many turnovers.
Busts
Drew Brees, NO: Remember, this is based on his ranking, not necessarily his actual production. I think Brees will be a top-ten fantasy quarterback, but I don't see him matching the numbers he put up last year. While it's true he has had the offseason to work with his receivers (which he did not have last year), the loss of Joe Horn will have a big impact. Even though Horn only played in 10 games last year, and was only the number two option behind Marques Colston, he was the team leader and Colston would not have had the season he did without Horn's guidance. Again, Brees will have a good year, but he will fall well short of year's totals.
Donovan McNabb, PHI: The oft-injured QB played MVP-caliber football the first 10 weeks of last season before getting hurt and missing the final six games. I expect a similar season this year. If you want to be assured of a playoff spot in your league, McNabb is your guy. If you want to win a championship, stay away from him. If he isn't healthy for the playoffs, he can't help you win.
Vince Young, TEN: For the life of me I can't figure out why so many boards have him ranked as highly as they do. With the exception of keeper leagues, Young does not belong in the top 10, and I've seen him ranked as highly as 6th. He threw for 12 TDs and 13 INTs. He ran for 7 TDs, but also fumbled 12 times (he only lost 3 of them, but that is based on luck, not skill). On top of that, he lost his top receiver (Drew Bennett) to the Rams and his starting running back (Travis Henry) to the Broncos. Couple that with defensive coordinators having a year to game plan for him, and he will be lucky to crack the top 15 in fantasy.
Sleepers
Philip Rivers, SD: I wouldn't be surprised if he was a top 5 QB this year. Last season he threw for 3,388 yards, 22 TDs, and only 9 INTs. That was his first year as a starter. He will only get better this year. They are bringing in a new coaching staff, but it's not the offense that will slip under new head coach Norv Turner.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: This really is a gut decision. He has had a healthy offseason (remember last year's motorcycle accident and ensuing appendectomy?) and receiver Santonio Holmes looks ready for a breakout year. Considering he is ranked in the 15-20 range on a lot of boards, he could provide fantastic value in the later rounds.
Running Backs: Most of the top-ranked backs are going to produce right around where they are generally ranked, so I won't spend much time on them.
Locks
Steven Jackson, STL: Call me crazy, but he could have a better year than LT. In keeper leagues, I would actually consider taking Jackson ahead of Tomlinson. This will be LT's seventh season, he is 28 years old, he has never missed a game, and he has had more than 300 carries every year. He is incredibly consistent and will probably have the best fantasy numbers this year, but he won't be doing it for much longer. Running backs who have had a heavy work load usually can't keep it up past age 30.
Shaun Alexander, SEA: He is slipping to the end of the first round in a lot of drafts, and even into the second sometimes. He doesn't deserve top consideration like he did last year, but he will be productive and consistent enough to warrant being picked around 5 or 6.
Busts
Clinton Portis, WAS: He still hasn't recovered from his knee injury. Washington just signed Ladell Betts, the "backup" who ran for over 1,000 yards last season, to a new contract. In the seven games when Portis did get the majority of the carries, Betts still averaged more than 7 carries per game. Even if Portis is healthy all year, he will only split carries. I wouldn't be surprised if Portis played fewer than six games.
Marshawn Lynch, BUF: It's hard to put a rookie in the bust category, particularly when he is being drafted in the third round at the earliest, but people seem to expect good numbers from this guy. This truth is, he has a sketchy injury history in college, he has a veteran behind him who could easily become a touchdown vulture, and rookies tend to wear down around week 12 or 13, just in time for the playoff run in fantasy. Lynch could be a great number three running back who can fill in for a bye week or if someone if facing a tough opponent, but he shouldn't be counted on to deliver in weeks 14-16, when it matters most.
Reggie Bush, NO: If you are in a keeper league or a PPR (point per reception) league, take him off this list. If you are in a standard redraft league with a standard scoring system, leave him here. If you take out his game against San Francisco last year he had 528 yards rushing, 611 yards receiving, and 4 total TDs. Solid numbers? Yes. Worthy of a first- or second-round selection? No. He has a year of experience under his belt, but there is no reason to believe his workload will change significantly. Deuce McAllister will continue to get the goal line carries, meaning Bush's value is in his yards and catches. That just isn't good enough for where he is being drafted.
Sleepers
Jerious Norwood, ATL: He didn't have great numbers last year and is slated to be splitting carries with Warrick Dunn in Atlanta--but that's why he's a sleeper! Dunn is 32 years old and has a bad back. Michael Vick isn't there to steal rushing yards (he had over 1,000 last year). Touchdown vulture T.J. Duckett is gone. Take Norwood and sit him on the bench for the first few weeks. By week six he'll be getting the workload of a feature back.
Brandon Jackson, GB: Like Lynch, Jackson is a rookie running back with competition at his position. Unlike Lynch, Jackson is going very late in a lot of drafts. Some shallow drafts don't have him being taken at all. He will put up around the same numbers as Lynch and should be available much later in the draft.
Wide Receivers: Like the running backs, most of the top guys will produce around where they are ranked, so I won't spend much time on them.
Locks
Reggie Brown, PHI: I debated listing him as a sleeper, but I think his ranking is just too high for that category. Some of the receivers who are commonly ranked higher, but whom I think Brown will outperform: Calvin Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Randy Moss, and Marques Colston. And if you are in a keeper league, Brown is even more valuable; he is 26 years old and should be in his prime for at least five more years.
Lee Evans, BUF: Don't be scared off by the fact that he plays in Buffalo with J.P. Losman and a mediocre running game. Evans will put up numbers...again. Last year he had 1,292 yards on 82 catches and 8 TDs. Expect more of the same.
Joey Galloway, TB: Don't ask me how he does it, but every year Galloway puts up good numbers. Throw in an upgrade at QB for Tampa Bay, and expects another year with 1,000+ yards and 6+ touchdowns.
Busts
Terrell Owens, DAL: Things are too quiet in Dallas right now. As soon as something goes wrong, as things tend to do in Big D, we can expect to see the T.O. side show again. Last year it worked out alright: 1,180 yards and 13 TDs. The difference is the coach. Last year, Parcells was there to keep the machine running smoothly, even though one of the parts was squeaky and needed constant oiling (great metaphor, right?). This year, they have Wade Phillips, whose tendency as a head coach has been to set the machine in motion, sit back, watch, and hope nothing goes wrong. With a talented, veteran team this could work. And T.O. is a talented veteran. Unfortunately for the team, when he starts squeaking for oil and Phillips doesn't give him any, the whole machine will fall apart.
Randy Moss, NE: Another head case. The difference between him and Owens, though, is that Moss will behave this year. If he were in Dallas, he would be a lock. Too bad he is in New England. Tom Brady spreads the ball around too much for Moss to be a legitimate #1 fantasy receiver. He will probably end up with 800-900 yards and 8 TDs if he plays every game...and that's no lock.
Sleepers
Vincent Jackson, SD: He's 6'5". He is now starting. San Diego lost its top wideout from last year (Keenan McCardell). Every defense puts it focus on LT and Antonio Gates. All of that adds up to Jackson being open in the endzone a lot.
Drew Bennett, STL: He is currently listed behind Isaac Bruce on the depth chart, but don't expect that to last long. Bruce is on his last legs and is an injury waiting to happen. Even when Bruce is healthy and starting, Bennett will be a popular redzone target for Bulger.
Devery Henderson, NO: It makes no sense why he is ranked as low as he is on so many boards. Once he is recovered from a strained hamstring, which he should be by next week, he will be starting for one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. On top of that, he had 745 yards and 5 TDs last season as the third receiver behind Colston and Joe Horn. With Horn out of the way, Henderson should improve those numbers.
Tight Ends:
This is what I'm going to say about tight ends: No tight end should be picked before you have filled every starting spot for QBs, RBs, and WRs. It doesn't matter if you start three receivers and Antonio Gates is still on the board. You are better off taking someone like Greg Jennings to be your #3 receiver and waiting until later in the draft to take a TE, someone like Ben Watson, Randy McMichael, or L.J. Smith. The difference between the top, middle, and bottom tight ends simply isn't drastic enough to warrant wasting a fourth rounder on Gates, which someone will do in every draft.
Kickers:
Don't take a kicker, any kicker, until the last round of the draft. Period. Example: Last year's most productive kicker, Robbie Gould of Chicago, went undrafted in almost every league in the world...and that's not an exaggeration.
Defense:
Don't take a defense until the second- or third-to-last rounds. People will take Chicago and Baltimore early. Let them. You will get better value going after a position player, then waiting until late to take a defense like Jacksonville or Carolina.
If anyone has a question about a particular player or team just let me know.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
