nflmock draftIt has been a long time, but I'm back for one of my favorite weekends of the year, the NFL draft.
I did the draft with no trades. Of course, that won't happen, so I made a few trade predictions to keep things interesting. An * means I think there will be a trade at that pick. The team moving into that spot and the player they will choose are in parentheses.
So, without further adieu, I give you my predictions:
1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long - OT - Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long - DE - Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons: Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
4. Oakland Raiders: Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio St.
6. New York Jets: Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
7. New England Patriots (from SF)*: Brandon Albert - G - Virginia (Atlanta Falcons move up from the second round: Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College)
8. Baltimore Ravens: Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College
9. Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers - OLB - USC
10. New Orleans Saints: Ryan Clady - OT - Boise St.
11. Buffalo Bills*: Aqib Talib - CB - Kansas (Kansas City moves up from pick 17: Chris Williams - OT - Vanderbilt)
12. Denver Broncos: Jerod Mayo - LB - Tennessee
13. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Harvey - DE - Florida
14. Chicago Bears: Jeff Otah - OT - Pittsburgh
15. Detroit Lions: Rashard Mendenhall - RB - Illinois
16. Arizona Cardinals: Leodis McKelvin - CB - Troy
17. Kansas City (from Min)*: Antonio Rogers-Cromartie - CB - Tennessee St. (Buffalo moves back from pick 11: Devin Thomas - WR - Michigan St.)
18. Houston Texans: Jonathan Stewart - RB - Oregon
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Phillip Merling - DE - Clemson
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin Thomas - WR - Michigan St.
21. Washington Redskins: Malcolm Kelly - WR - Oklahoma
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cle): Mike Jenkins - CB - South Florida
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kentwaan Balmer - DT - North Carolina
24. Tennessee Titans: Brandon Flowers - CB - Virginia Tech.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Dustin Keller - TE - Purdue
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Calais Campbell - DE - Miami
27. San Diego Chargers: Kenny Phillips - S - Miami
28. Dallas Cowboys: Limas Sweed - WR - Texas
29. San Francisco 49ers (from Ind)*: Gosder Cherilous - OT - Boston College (Miami moves up from the second round: Brian Brohm - QB - Louisville)
30. Green Bay Packers: Antoine Cason - CB - Arizona
31. New England Patriots
32. New York Giants: Tyrell Johnson - S - Arkansas St.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
Kansas City (+3) at Houston ... pick Kansas City
Denver (-3) at Buffalo ... pick Denver
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cleveland ... pick Pittsburgh
Tennessee (+6.5) at Jacksonville ... pick Tennessee
Carolina (+1) at St. Louis ... pick St. Louis
Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay ... pick Philadelphia
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota ... pick Minnesota
Miami (+3) at Washington ... pick Miami
New England (-6.5) at New York Jets ... pick New England
Tampa Bay (+6) at Seattle ... pick Tampa Bay
Chicago (+6.5) at San Diego ... pick Chicago
Detroit (+2.5) at Oakland ... pick Detroit
New York Gianta (+6) at Dallas ... pick Dallas
Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati ... pick Baltimore
Arizona (+3) at San Francisco ... pick Niners baby!
(Spreads from the MGM in Las Vegas)
Locks, Busts, and Sleepers
Finally, I have returned. Sorry for the hiatus, but I'm back for the stretch-run in baseball and the start of the football season.
For my comeback column, I'm going with fantasy football at the request of one of my loyal readers.
There is no shortage of rankings out there for fantasy football. The trick always has been and always will be sorting through those rankings and picking out who will fulfill those expectations and who will do nothing but disappoint. And, if you're lucky, maybe pull out a sleeper or two in the later rounds.
A key factor is the scoring system. Unfortunately, this varies from league to league, so these musings might not apply to everyone. However, I will try to note which players will see their value significantly affected by changes in scoring.
Quarterbacks:
Locks
Peyton Manning, IND: He's arguably the most consistent player in fantasy. Most leagues only give 4 points per passing touchdown, but if I were in a league that gave 6 points for touchdown passes, I would seriously consider Manning with the third pick behind LaDanian Tomlinson and Stephen Jackson.
Tom Brady, NE: He threw for 3,529 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last year when his best receiver was Reche Caldwell. Now Caldwell is the fourth receiver behind Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, and Wes Welker. I don't think any of the receivers will be worth the rankings they have been given because Brady spreads the ball around so much, but the new daddy should put up big numbers consistently.
Carson Palmer, CIN: He might have the best year among all of these quarterbacks. Believe it or not, this will only be his fourth year as a starter, and he is only getting better. After a healthy offseason spent working with his receivers (he was rehabbing a knee all of last year and barely made it back for the regular season), he should be ready for a huge season.
Marc Bulger, STL: It pains me to put a Ram up here, but Bulger deserves it. He is ranked fifth or sixth on most boards, but he will have a better season than people expect. Last year, he had 4,301 yards, 24 TDs, and just 8 INTs. And that was in a new offense with a new head coach. The offense didn't lose any key pieces in the offseason while improving the receiving positions with the additions of TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett, both of whom should be effective redzone targets. Expect good, consistent numbers without many turnovers.
Busts
Drew Brees, NO: Remember, this is based on his ranking, not necessarily his actual production. I think Brees will be a top-ten fantasy quarterback, but I don't see him matching the numbers he put up last year. While it's true he has had the offseason to work with his receivers (which he did not have last year), the loss of Joe Horn will have a big impact. Even though Horn only played in 10 games last year, and was only the number two option behind Marques Colston, he was the team leader and Colston would not have had the season he did without Horn's guidance. Again, Brees will have a good year, but he will fall well short of year's totals.
Donovan McNabb, PHI: The oft-injured QB played MVP-caliber football the first 10 weeks of last season before getting hurt and missing the final six games. I expect a similar season this year. If you want to be assured of a playoff spot in your league, McNabb is your guy. If you want to win a championship, stay away from him. If he isn't healthy for the playoffs, he can't help you win.
Vince Young, TEN: For the life of me I can't figure out why so many boards have him ranked as highly as they do. With the exception of keeper leagues, Young does not belong in the top 10, and I've seen him ranked as highly as 6th. He threw for 12 TDs and 13 INTs. He ran for 7 TDs, but also fumbled 12 times (he only lost 3 of them, but that is based on luck, not skill). On top of that, he lost his top receiver (Drew Bennett) to the Rams and his starting running back (Travis Henry) to the Broncos. Couple that with defensive coordinators having a year to game plan for him, and he will be lucky to crack the top 15 in fantasy.
Sleepers
Philip Rivers, SD: I wouldn't be surprised if he was a top 5 QB this year. Last season he threw for 3,388 yards, 22 TDs, and only 9 INTs. That was his first year as a starter. He will only get better this year. They are bringing in a new coaching staff, but it's not the offense that will slip under new head coach Norv Turner.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: This really is a gut decision. He has had a healthy offseason (remember last year's motorcycle accident and ensuing appendectomy?) and receiver Santonio Holmes looks ready for a breakout year. Considering he is ranked in the 15-20 range on a lot of boards, he could provide fantastic value in the later rounds.
Running Backs: Most of the top-ranked backs are going to produce right around where they are generally ranked, so I won't spend much time on them.
Locks
Steven Jackson, STL: Call me crazy, but he could have a better year than LT. In keeper leagues, I would actually consider taking Jackson ahead of Tomlinson. This will be LT's seventh season, he is 28 years old, he has never missed a game, and he has had more than 300 carries every year. He is incredibly consistent and will probably have the best fantasy numbers this year, but he won't be doing it for much longer. Running backs who have had a heavy work load usually can't keep it up past age 30.
Shaun Alexander, SEA: He is slipping to the end of the first round in a lot of drafts, and even into the second sometimes. He doesn't deserve top consideration like he did last year, but he will be productive and consistent enough to warrant being picked around 5 or 6.
Busts
Clinton Portis, WAS: He still hasn't recovered from his knee injury. Washington just signed Ladell Betts, the "backup" who ran for over 1,000 yards last season, to a new contract. In the seven games when Portis did get the majority of the carries, Betts still averaged more than 7 carries per game. Even if Portis is healthy all year, he will only split carries. I wouldn't be surprised if Portis played fewer than six games.
Marshawn Lynch, BUF: It's hard to put a rookie in the bust category, particularly when he is being drafted in the third round at the earliest, but people seem to expect good numbers from this guy. This truth is, he has a sketchy injury history in college, he has a veteran behind him who could easily become a touchdown vulture, and rookies tend to wear down around week 12 or 13, just in time for the playoff run in fantasy. Lynch could be a great number three running back who can fill in for a bye week or if someone if facing a tough opponent, but he shouldn't be counted on to deliver in weeks 14-16, when it matters most.
Reggie Bush, NO: If you are in a keeper league or a PPR (point per reception) league, take him off this list. If you are in a standard redraft league with a standard scoring system, leave him here. If you take out his game against San Francisco last year he had 528 yards rushing, 611 yards receiving, and 4 total TDs. Solid numbers? Yes. Worthy of a first- or second-round selection? No. He has a year of experience under his belt, but there is no reason to believe his workload will change significantly. Deuce McAllister will continue to get the goal line carries, meaning Bush's value is in his yards and catches. That just isn't good enough for where he is being drafted.
Sleepers
Jerious Norwood, ATL: He didn't have great numbers last year and is slated to be splitting carries with Warrick Dunn in Atlanta--but that's why he's a sleeper! Dunn is 32 years old and has a bad back. Michael Vick isn't there to steal rushing yards (he had over 1,000 last year). Touchdown vulture T.J. Duckett is gone. Take Norwood and sit him on the bench for the first few weeks. By week six he'll be getting the workload of a feature back.
Brandon Jackson, GB: Like Lynch, Jackson is a rookie running back with competition at his position. Unlike Lynch, Jackson is going very late in a lot of drafts. Some shallow drafts don't have him being taken at all. He will put up around the same numbers as Lynch and should be available much later in the draft.
Wide Receivers: Like the running backs, most of the top guys will produce around where they are ranked, so I won't spend much time on them.
Locks
Reggie Brown, PHI: I debated listing him as a sleeper, but I think his ranking is just too high for that category. Some of the receivers who are commonly ranked higher, but whom I think Brown will outperform: Calvin Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Randy Moss, and Marques Colston. And if you are in a keeper league, Brown is even more valuable; he is 26 years old and should be in his prime for at least five more years.
Lee Evans, BUF: Don't be scared off by the fact that he plays in Buffalo with J.P. Losman and a mediocre running game. Evans will put up numbers...again. Last year he had 1,292 yards on 82 catches and 8 TDs. Expect more of the same.
Joey Galloway, TB: Don't ask me how he does it, but every year Galloway puts up good numbers. Throw in an upgrade at QB for Tampa Bay, and expects another year with 1,000+ yards and 6+ touchdowns.
Busts
Terrell Owens, DAL: Things are too quiet in Dallas right now. As soon as something goes wrong, as things tend to do in Big D, we can expect to see the T.O. side show again. Last year it worked out alright: 1,180 yards and 13 TDs. The difference is the coach. Last year, Parcells was there to keep the machine running smoothly, even though one of the parts was squeaky and needed constant oiling (great metaphor, right?). This year, they have Wade Phillips, whose tendency as a head coach has been to set the machine in motion, sit back, watch, and hope nothing goes wrong. With a talented, veteran team this could work. And T.O. is a talented veteran. Unfortunately for the team, when he starts squeaking for oil and Phillips doesn't give him any, the whole machine will fall apart.
Randy Moss, NE: Another head case. The difference between him and Owens, though, is that Moss will behave this year. If he were in Dallas, he would be a lock. Too bad he is in New England. Tom Brady spreads the ball around too much for Moss to be a legitimate #1 fantasy receiver. He will probably end up with 800-900 yards and 8 TDs if he plays every game...and that's no lock.
Sleepers
Vincent Jackson, SD: He's 6'5". He is now starting. San Diego lost its top wideout from last year (Keenan McCardell). Every defense puts it focus on LT and Antonio Gates. All of that adds up to Jackson being open in the endzone a lot.
Drew Bennett, STL: He is currently listed behind Isaac Bruce on the depth chart, but don't expect that to last long. Bruce is on his last legs and is an injury waiting to happen. Even when Bruce is healthy and starting, Bennett will be a popular redzone target for Bulger.
Devery Henderson, NO: It makes no sense why he is ranked as low as he is on so many boards. Once he is recovered from a strained hamstring, which he should be by next week, he will be starting for one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. On top of that, he had 745 yards and 5 TDs last season as the third receiver behind Colston and Joe Horn. With Horn out of the way, Henderson should improve those numbers.
Tight Ends:
This is what I'm going to say about tight ends: No tight end should be picked before you have filled every starting spot for QBs, RBs, and WRs. It doesn't matter if you start three receivers and Antonio Gates is still on the board. You are better off taking someone like Greg Jennings to be your #3 receiver and waiting until later in the draft to take a TE, someone like Ben Watson, Randy McMichael, or L.J. Smith. The difference between the top, middle, and bottom tight ends simply isn't drastic enough to warrant wasting a fourth rounder on Gates, which someone will do in every draft.
Kickers:
Don't take a kicker, any kicker, until the last round of the draft. Period. Example: Last year's most productive kicker, Robbie Gould of Chicago, went undrafted in almost every league in the world...and that's not an exaggeration.
Defense:
Don't take a defense until the second- or third-to-last rounds. People will take Chicago and Baltimore early. Let them. You will get better value going after a position player, then waiting until late to take a defense like Jacksonville or Carolina.
If anyone has a question about a particular player or team just let me know.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
Here's what will happen in the NBA Playoffs:
Western Conference
First Round:
(1) Dallas vs. (8) Golden State
Dallas wins 4-1
(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston
Houston wins 4-3
(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Denver
San Antonio wins 4-2
(2) Phoenix vs. (7) LA Lakers
Phoenix wins 4-2
Second Round:
(1) Dallas vs. (5) Houston
Dallas wins 4-3
(2) Phoenix vs. (3) San Antonio
Phoenix wins 4-3
Conference Finals:
(1) Dallas vs. (2) Phoenix
Phoenix wins 4-3
Eastern Conference
First Round:
(1) Detroit vs. (8) Orlando
Detroit wins 4-0
(4) Miami vs. (5) Chicago
Chicago wins 4-3
(3) Toronto vs. (6) New Jersey
New Jersey wins 4-2
(2) Cleveland vs. (7) Washington
Cleveland wins 4-1
Second Round:
(1) Detroit vs. (5) Chicago
Detroit wins 4-2
(2) Cleveland vs. (6) New Jersey
New Jersey wins 4-3
Conference Finals:
(1) Detroit vs. (6) New Jersey
Detroit wins 4-1
NBA Finals:
Detroit vs. Phoenix
Detroit wins 4-2
Finals MVP: Chauncey Billups
It feels like time for a new mock draft. Last time I tried to predict a couple trades, but that's just impossible to do so this time I'm just going to take the order as it is now. This will also be a lot different because there have been developments in the trade market and free agency that have changed a few things.
1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB, Louisiana St.
I would like to make it clear that I do not think this is the right pick for them. I think Brady Quinn will be the better quarterback in the long run as well as immediately. Russell strikes me as one who has always gotten by purely on natural ability. That is the sort of player that can't hang in the NFL because it requires so much more study, work, and discipline. Unfortunately for Raider fans, these traits are of little importance to Al Davis.
2. Detroit Lions: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech.
Johnson will be selected second. It could be the Lions who take him, but probably not. What is most likely is that they will trade with someone like Tampa Bay or Minnesota. However, the Lions could draft him in order to trade him after the draft. They could do a lot of things, but Johnson will be picked at #2.
3. Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
It isn't often when a rookie quarterback is a team's best hope for instant success, but this will be the case when Cleveland drafts Quinn. Supposedly the organization likes Charlie Frye, but Quinn is better now and has more potential to be better in the future. Also, coach Romeo Crennel will be under a lot of pressure to win this season. Quinn gives him his best chance.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
This will be a tough pick. The Bucs could either go for a defensive lineman like Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, or Alan Branch, but their offensive line has been weak for a while and they need someone to protect all the quarterbacks they have amassed. Even though the Bucs have been known for their defense, I think Gruden's offensive mindset will be the deciding factor.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
The Cards would ove for Thomas to fall to them, but with him off the board, they need to address the defensive line. There are three prospects they could choose here (Adams and Branch being the other two), but Anderson gets the edge. Adams is a one-dimensional pass-rusher, which the Cards already have with Bertrand Berry, and Branch has a questionable motor and work ethic, something that won't be tolerated by new head coach Ken Wisenhunt, who coached under Bill Cowher. Anderson can play the run as well as rush the passer and has been considered a hard-worker.
6. Washington Redskins: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
This seems like the perfect fit. Washington needs a pass-rusher from the end position. Adams is probably the best pass-rusher in the draft. (In real life, I expect this pick to be traded because Washington has given away so many picks in ridiculous trades from previous off-seasons. If/when this pick is traded, I expect Adrian Peterson to be the pick. Unlike the Calvin Johnson situation at #2, there is no way Washington would choose Peterson if they kept this pick.)
7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S, Louisiana St.
This might be the worst scenario for the Vikings. They would like to get one of the top ends, but they are both gone. They would like one of the top quarterbacks, but they are gone. They would like a corner or wide receiver, but none are worthy of being drafted this high. Ultimately, I don't see them picking here. They might move up or down, but they won't pick here. However, since I need to pick someone for them, I think they will go with Landry. He is the second best player available (after Peterson) and they will soon need a replacement to the aging Darren Sharper.
8. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston): Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
This is the best situation new head coach Bobby Petrino could hope for. Warrick Dunn is aging and youngster Jerious Norwood is nothing more than a good complementary back. Peterson gives them a powerful runner who can carry the ball 25 times per game.
9. Miami Dolphins: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Miami likes to run a hybrid defense, using both the 3-4 and the 4-3 at times. Branch will fit into the scheme as a nose tackle or end in the 3-4 and as a tackle in the 4-3.
10. Houston Texans (from Atlanta): Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Levi Brown, an offensive tackle, deserves serious consideration here, but Okoye deserves the choice. Brown isn't the type of athletic lineman coach Gary Kubiak likes, and there will be plenty of those in the later rounds. Okoye fills a need at DT and also completes the foundation of their run defense for at least 10 years. (Remember, they drafted DE Mario Williams first last year and MLB DeMeco Ryans won defensive Rookie of the Year.)
11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
This really is an easy choice. Carriker's work ethic and intensity are unquestioned and he brings the type of nasty, physical attitude Mike Nolan loves. On top of that is the fact that he is a prototypical 3-4 defensive end (a position few are naturally able to play), and the fact that the Niners need an end. This should be a no-brainer.
12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, MLB, Ole Miss
The Bills have other needs that could be filled with this pick, such as OT or CB, but getting a versatile linebacker is at the top of the list. They already lost MLB London Fletcher-Baker to free agency and now they are trying to trade OLB Takeo Spikes. Even though he has the athleticism to play outside, Willis is a pure MLB in the 4-3 and should be able to step in right away and man the middle of the field.
13. St. Louis Rams: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
The Rams struggled defensively last season, yet their offseason thus far has been focused on offense. My only assumption is that they are planning to address defense in the draft and Hall is a good way to start. The Rams only have three corners on their roster and already lost starter Travis Fisher to free agency. Hall will be able to pair with last years first-round pick, Tye Hill, who has a very solid rookie season, and secure the corner spots for the future.
14. Carolina Panthers: Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
Carolina's offensive line struggled last year with injuries and players playing out of position. Brown will be able to step in and start right away and left tackle, allowing the rest of the line to move back to their natural positions. This will immediately help the passing and running attacks that struggled last season.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
Timmons isn't a very sexy pick, but he would be a great start for the Mike Tomlin era. Timmons has experience as a strongside OLB, weakside OLB, and pass rushing end on third downs. All of this was in a 4-3 defense, but those skills should translate well to playing OLB Pittsburgh's established 3-4. Why this is such a good pick for them is that Tomlin wants to gradually move the Steelers to a 4-3 and Timmons can play both.
16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Everyone has the Packers making this pick and there is a reason. Lynch is a great value at this spot in the first round, he is capable of carrying a full-time load as a featured back, and the Packers need a running back who offers those things.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Jags lost their starting FS to Seattle in free agency and SS Donovin Darius has extremely limited coverage skills. Nelson is a prototypical FS who can cover deep over the top or man-to-man on the slot receiver or tight end.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL)
The Bengals don't really need a tight end. Well, they do in the regard that they don't have a very good one, but their offense obviously does well in spite of this. Nonethelss, Olsen is the top tight end prospect and would provide a fast, athletic target over the middle that Palmer hasn't had before.
19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Louisiana St.
Tennessee would feel like a kid in a candy store in this situation. None of the top receivers, aside from Johnson of course, have been taken yet and the Titans get their choice. There will be some speculation that they will take Dwayne Jarrett because offensive coordinator Norm Chow coached him at USC, or that they should take local prospect Robert Meachem from Tennessee, but Bowe is the best fit. He is a big, smart receiver with sure hands who is like a more athletic version of Drew Bennett, who was their best receiver before leaving for St. Louis this offseason. Jarrett is those things too, but Bowe is more athletic.
20. New York Giants: Darrell Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Revis give the Giants great value and fit at this spot. He is a big, physical corner who fills strong against the run. That fits perfectly in the Giants zone-based coverage scheme.
21. Denver Broncos: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
The Broncos need a pass-rushing end and there will be some good picks for them here. Even though some would argue Anthony Spencer or Jarvis Moss is better, Johnson is a better fit for the Broncos. Denver likes lineman who are able to anchor against the run to allow the linebackers to run free. Spencer and Moss are too small for that, whereas Johnson can anchor against the run and get after the quarterback.
22. Dallas Cowboys: Jarvis Moss, OLB/DE, Florida
They already have DeMarcus Ware, but the Cowboys need to get more pressure on the quarterback. Greg Ellis was unable to successfully transition to OLB after playing DE for his first 8 years in the league, but appears to have the athleticism, and clean slate, to learn the new position quickly. The only question is whether they take Moss or Anthony Spencer.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
The Chiefs need a receiver. They have a lot to choose from, and Meachem will eventually be the pick. Herm Edwards needs a speedy wideout who can stretch the field and, among the best remaining receivers, Meachem is the best bet. Ginn obviously deserves consideration if a team is looking for speed, but he is just too risky this early considering the fact that he has been unable to work out due to a foot injury (probably the worst type for a receiver whose game is predicated on speed) for almost three months now.
24. New England (from Seattle): Anthony Spencer, OLB/DE, Purdue
While it is true that they signed Adalius Thomas to play OLB, they need two and Spencer can fill the other role. Rosevelt Colvin, the incumbent starter, has never been productive in the 3-4 since coming to New England, Ted Bruschi and Mike Vrabel are frequently hurt and Junior Seau shouldn't be back next season. Drafting Spencer would bring a lot of energy to this group as well as adding an important piece for the future.
25. Ney York Jets: Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
Mangini is going to continue building his offensive line by adding Grubbs to last year's first-round picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. Grubbs is a powerful, tough lineman who even played a little tight end when he first got to Auburn. This isn't a sexy pick, but it helps to secure the foundation of the offense.
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Houston is an unpolished corner who has the strength and speed to match-up man-to-man against almost anyone in the league. His main problem is with play recognition and field awareness, but the Eagles already have two starting corners, so they will be able to start Houston as a nickel back until he is mentally ready to start.
27. New Orleans Saints: Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
Wright could be the best corner in this draft. His only problem is that teams are concerned with his character. Based on talent alone, Wright would deserve consideration in the top 15 picks, but no team wants to commit that much to a questionable individual. The Saints are a team that I could see taking a chance. Head coach Sean Payton learned from Bill Parcells, who always accepted challenging players so long as they gave 100% to the team.
28. New England Patriots: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
Ross is a great fit in New England. In addition to being a corner with a knack for big plays, he is a good enough tackler to play safety and can return kicks.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio St.
At first glance this might not seem like a good fit, but hear me out. Head coach Brian Billick is thought of as a great offensive because of his time in Minnesota as their offensive coordinator. Since arriving in Baltimore, that reputation has failed to materialize on the field because he hasn't had anyone to stretch the field vertically. In Minnesota he had Randy Moss and Chris Carter complimenting each other's skill sets beautifully. Billick will be able to recreate that explosive Minnesota offense by drafting Ginn and pairing him with Derrick Mason, Steve McNair, and the newly-acquired Willis McGahee.
30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Southern Cal
San Diego is sorely lacking in the receiver department and Jarrett gives them a talented, local prospect that can help balance an offense that was too run-heavy. Norv Turner loves big, physical receivers like he had in Dallas with Michael Irvin, and Jarrett fits that role perfectly.
31. Chicago Bears: Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
The Bears will eventually realize that they can't keep Lance Briggs at a price the notoriously cheap organization deems reasonable. Posluszny can step in as a starter right away if necessary and brings the toughness that Chicago looks for in its players.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Justin Harell, DT, Tennessee
The Colts run defense was terrible last year. Yes, they played well in the playoffs once Bob Sanders came back, but defensive tackle was exposed as a major weak spot. They traded for Anthony McFarland, which paid immediate dividends, but he is just a run-stopper without posing a threat to get to the quarterback. Harell is athletic and quick and should be a great pair for McFarland.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
ncaatournamentMidwest Regional:
Round of 64:
(1) Florida over (16) Jackson St.
(8) Arizona over (9) Purdue
(5) Butler over (12) Old Dominion
(4) Maryland over (13) Davidson
(11) Winthrop over (6) Notre Dame
(3) Oregon over (14) Miami (OH)
(7) UNLV over (10) Georgia Tech
(2) Wisconsin over (15) Texas A&M CC
Round of 32:
(1)Florida over (8) Arizona
(4) Maryland over (5) Butler
(3) Oregon over (11) Winthrop
(7) UNLV over (2) Wisconsin
Sweet 16:
(4) Maryland over (1) Florida
(7) UNLV over (3) Oregon
Elite 8:
(4) Maryland over (7) UNLV
West Regional:
Round of 64:
(1) Kansas over (16) Niagara
(8) Kentucky over (9) Villanova
(5) Virginia Tech over (12) Illinois
(4) Southern Illinois over (13) Holy Cross
(11) VCU over (6) Duke
(3) Pittsburgh over (14) Wright St.
(10) Gonzaga over (7) Indiana
(2) UCLA over (15) Weber St.
Round of 32:
(1) Kansas over (8) Kentucky
(4) Southern Illinois over (5) Virginia Tech
(3) Pittsburgh over (11) VCU
(2) UCLA over (10) Gonzaga
Sweet 16:
(1) Kansas over (4) Southern Illinois
(2) UCLA over (3) Pittsburgh
Elite 8:
(2) UCLA over (1) Kansas
East Regional:
Round of 64:
(1) North Carolina over (16) Eastern Kentucky
(9) Michigan St. over (8) Marquette
(12) Arkansas over (5) USC
(4) Texas over (13) New Mexico St.
(6) Vanderbilt over (11) George Washington
(14) Oral Roberts over (3) Washington St.
(7) Boston College over (10) Texas Tech
(2) Georgetown over (15) Belmont
Round of 32:
(1) North Carolina over (9) Michigan St.
(4) Texas over (12) Arkansas
(14) Oral Roberts over (6) Vanderbilt
(2) Georgetown over (7) Boston College
Sweet 16:
(4) Texas over (1) North Carolina
(2) Georgetown over (14) Oral Roberts
Elite 8:
(4) Texas over (2) Georgetown
South Regional:
Round of 64:
(1) Ohio St. over (16) Central Connecticut St.
(9) Xavier over (8) BYU
(12) Long Beach St. over (5) Tennessee
(4) Virginia over (13) Albany
(11) Stanford over (6) Louisville
(3) Texas A&M over (14) Pennsylvania
(7) Nevada over (10) Creighton
(2) Memphis over (15) North Texas
Round of 32:
(1) Ohio St. over (9) Xavier
(4) Virginia over (12) Long Beach St.
(3) Texas A&M over (11) Stanford
(7) Nevada over (2) Memphis
Sweet 16:
(1) Ohio St. over (4) Virginia
(3) Texas A&M over (7) Nevada
Elite 8:
(1) Ohio St. over (3) Texas A&M
Final Four:
UCLA over Maryland
Ohio St. over Texas
Championship Game:
UCLA over Ohio St.
Tournament MOP: Darren Collison
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
The combine is behind us and most of the major free agents have signed, so it seems like a good time to unveil my first mock draft. I'll update it a couple more times as we near the big weekend of April 28-29. Some of these picks are based on what some free agents will do. For example, if Cato June resigns with the Colts, they probably won't take a linebacker as I have them doing. Also, there are a couple trades I think will happen on draft day. These are marked with an asterisk.
1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB, Louisiana St.
2. Detroit Lions: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
4. *San Francisco 49ers (from Tampa Bay): Calvin Johnson, WR, Ga. Tech
5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
6. Washington Redskins: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
7. *Green Bay Packers (from Minnesota): Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
8. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
9. Miami Dolphins: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
10. Atlanta Falcons: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio St.
11. *Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from San Francisco): LaRon Landry, S, LSU
12. Buffalo Bills: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Akoye, DT, Louisville
14. Carolina Panthers: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
16. *Minnesota Vikings (from Green Bay): Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL)
19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Louisiana St.
20. New York Giants: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
21. Denver Broncos: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
22. Dallas Cowboys: Jarvis Moss, OLB/DE, Florida
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
24. New England (from Seattle): Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
25. Ney York Jets: Patrick Willis, ILB, Ole Miss
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
27. New Orleans Saints: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
28. New England Patriots: Anthony Spencer, OLB/DE, Purdue
29. Baltimore Ravens: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
30. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
31. Chicago Bears: Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
Football season is over and the NBA is getting ready for the stretch run after the All-Star break. So, what a great time to offer my musings on what has happened so far and what might happen leading up to the playoffs.
First and foremost, the Atlantic division is the worst division I have ever seen in any sport (the NL West the last couple of year is a close second). It is a situation like this that makes me want the League abandon its current seeding format. The discussion started last year when Dallas was the 4 seed, even though they had the second best record, because San Antonio won the division. Under that format the Atlantic division would have the 3 seed. If, instead, the league seeded the teams based purely on record, they would be the 4 seed. It may not seem like a big difference, but it would result in Cleveland (who is second in their division behind Detroit, but has a better record than division leaders Washington and Toronto) playing against Orlando instead of Indiana, a much easier matchup. On top of this, it means the top two teams will play one another in the Conference title game rather than the second round.
Second, Gilbert Arenas is not a leader. A leader doesn't go out with the intention of scoring 50 points out of spite for the other coach. A leader goes out looking for the win. What Arenas doesn't seem to realize is that his team is leading its division and, in a weak Eastern Conference, has a legitimate shot at reaching the Finals. If he did, he wouldn't care about his points. He wouldn't care about other coaches. He would care about wins. Just look at Washington's loss to Portland last Monday. Arenas, for weeks leading up to the game, ran his mouth about putting up 50 out of revenge because Nate McMillan, the Portland coach, was an assistant for Team USA this summer--from which Arenas was cut. Washington lost 94-73 to a team with a 22-30 record. Arenas' numbers for the game: 3-15 FGs (0-8 3pts), 2 assists, 5 turnovers, 9 points. If a team leader is having a bad game, which Arenas clearly was, he passes the ball. A team leader knows his shots aren't falling, so he should find someone whose shots are falling. Instead, Arenas had more than twice as many turnovers (5) as assists (2). "Agent Zero" only cares about himself and his own number, which is a shame because he really is a great player.
The Miami Heat proved last year, and are proving again this year, that the regular season is too damn long. The reigning champs have half-assed it all year and are sitting on a .500 record. Come season's end, they will probably win their division and settle into a nice 2 seed. If the NBA wants to see Shaq play in the regular season, they should shorten it by 20 games.
Steve Nash deserves the MVP. He shoots .536 on field goals (best among all guards). He shoots .49 from behind the arc (second in the league). He averages almost 12 assists per game (2.6 more per game than second best) and has an assist-turnover ratio of better than 3:1. And he puts up over 19 points per game. What is irritating is that the main argument against his winning his third straight MVP is that it will be his thrid straight MVP. For some reason, a lot of people have been taking his previous awards into account while considering his play for this season. Last I checked, the MVP only lasts for one season and there is no limit on how many a person can win.
Houston is replacing San Antonio deep in the heart of Texas. For years San Antonio has dominated the state with a dominant big man and stifling defense. Unfortunately, they seem to be in a steady decline. Tim Duncan is 30 years-old in his 10th season with his best years behind him. They can be a solid team with Duncan past his prime, but this is their last chance to contend for the title. Houston, on the other hand, is sliding right into the spot the Spurs are vacating. Yao is only 26 years-old and has gotten used to the style of play in the NBA (averaging almost 26 points and 10 rebounds per game this season). They have a coach in Jeff Van Gundy who coached Patrick Ewing for years and knows how to get the most from a dominant big man. They also have that McGrady guy who is pretty darn good (and who Van Gundy didn't have to pair with Ewing in New York). For the next four years Houston is going to be a defensive powerhouse team based on a dominant big man that could win the championship every year...just like San Antonio.
Lastly, my poor Sacramento Kings. My poor, poor Kings. I love them, but the team needs to be blown up. Mike Bibby and Brad Miller are great complimentary players, but without a superstar in his prime (i.e. Chris Webber) they struggle handling the extra pressure. The problem with Miller is that his contract runs for another three seasons after this year is done. Bibby can opt out of his contract, but considering how poorly he has played this year, he isn't going to get more money elsewhere, so he is probably here for two more seasons. Ron Artest has two more years, Shareef Abdur-Rahim has three more years, and so does Kenny Thomas. Those are five of our six most expensive contracts (Corliss Williamson's $6 million comes off the books this offseason). That doesn't even include Kevin Martin who will likely get a fat contract extension this offseason (he only has one more year after this).
Between Bibby, Miller, Thomas, and Abdur-Rahim, two need to be traded. Ideally, we would get rid of Miller and Abdur-Rahim because their deals run longer than Bibby's and in my opinion, they contribute less to the team than Thomas.
Artest needs to go. Every day his trade value dimishes because every day he is one day closer to his next incident. The problem the Kings face is that, no matter how insignificant the incident might be, his history will scare off potential trade partners.
They should keep Mussleman as a sacrificial lamb. He isn't a great coach and he isn't going to lead a team to a title. The roster the Kings currently have can't win a title either. So while firing Mussleman in order to hire a high priced veteran to coach a team to the 10th worst record instead of the 6th worst record (i.e. the Warriors hiring Don Nelson) might seem attractive, it will just be another unnecessary expense. Keep Mussleman until the roster is improved, then bring in a more capable coach.
While the Kings are battling it out for lottery position the rest of the season the good teams will be gearing up for a playoff push. In the West I see Dallas making the Finals again. Their main challengers, of course, will be Phoenix, San Antonio and Houston. When it comes to Phoenix, they look great during the regular season. Their problem is that they get worn out. They probably run an extra mile every game because of the pace at which they play and all of those miles catch up to even the strongest wheels. San Antonio is fading and Houston isn't quite ready to make the jump to title contender (they will next year, mark it down).
As for the East, Detroit is going to roll. Remember when they signed Rasheed Wallace in the middle of the 2003-2004 season? Yeah, they won the title that year. Remember when they signed Chris Webber in the middle of this season? Yeah, they will win the title again this year. They should be able to cruise through the East into the Finals. Their defense isn't as good as it was with Ben Wallace, but their offense is much better. When they face the Heat in the Easter finlas Tayshawn Prince and Rip Hamilton will be able to contain Dwyane Wade and the Pistons have enough big men to foul Shaq all game.
The Finals might actually be easier for Detroit. Rasheed Wallace and Prince have the length and quickness to slow down Dirk Nowitzki. After that, Dallas doesn't have much left. Josh Howard is having a great year, but everythin he and the rest of his teammates get is because of Nowitzki. As for Dallas' defense, well, they aren't good. Oh, and on top of all of this, Detroit beat a healthy Mavs team 92-82 in Dallas earlier this season--before they got Webber.
Some quick picks for the All-Star festivities tonight:
Skills Challenge: Chris Paul, New Orleans
Slam Dunk Contest: Gerald Green, Boston
Three-Point Shootout: Mike Miller, Memphis
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
Before I get to my Super Bowl pick, I decided to give myself a small pat on the back for getting a few things right about the playoffs way back in September:
I had Philadelphia beating the Giants at home in the wild card round...which actually happened.
I had Indianapolis beating Kansas City at home in the second round...only one week late.
I had Indianapolis beating New England at home in the AFC title game...which actually happened.
I just needed to stick to my guns instead of changing everything these last few weeks. Nonetheless, on we go to the big game.
Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Colts win, 27-13.
The toughest part of predicting this matchup is trying to figure out what type of a game it will be. Chicago obviously wants a low-scoring defensive struggle whereas the Colts want a track meet. Who will be able to dictate the pace?
What it comes down to is Indy's Cover 2 defense. This defense is built to stop big plays; the defensive backs are taught to keep evertything in front of them. This applies to Chicago because the Bears offense is only effective when they can make big plays down the field. Rex cannot beat a team trying to dink and dunk his way down the field, he just is not consistently accurate with his throws. Without the ability to get the ball deep to Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhhamad, Chicago's offense will struggle against the Colts' surprisingsly stingy run defense.
Of course, the matchup everyone really cares about is Indy's offense against Chicago's defense. Last week the Colts scored 38 points against a New England defense that had always shut him down in the past. Here are some interesting comparisons between New England's defense and Chicago's defense during the regular season:
-Chicago gave up an average of 99 rush yards and 195 pass yards
per game.
New England gave up an average of 94 rush yards per game and
200 pass yards per game.
-Chicago gave up a total of 258 first downs: 77 rushing, 159
passing, and 22 due to penalty.
New England gave up a total of 264 first downs: 67 rushing, 164
passing, 33 on penalties.
-Chicago had 24 interceptions.
New England had 22 interceptions.
Those seem to be some pretty similar numbers. On top of all of that, Chicago's pass rush will be limited without Tommie Harris while their pass defense tries to cope without veteran Pro Bowler Mike Brown. All of that adds up to Peyton at least having a good day. Combine that with a defense that picks of two passes and Peyton gets his first Super Bowl.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
NFC
New Orleans at Chicago: Saints win, 31-21.
When I try to imagine how this game will go, I cannot help but think of how Steve Smith torched the Bears in the playoffs last year. The Saints have a better passing attack than the Panthers did, so I'm going with New Orleans. Rex actually won't play terribly, but mediocre football doesn't get your team to the Super Bowl.
AFC
New England at Indianapolis: Patriots win, 17-14.
Hopefully this will be a great game. If it is, this could start to approach the Niner-Cowboy rivalry when they seemed to play in the conference title game every year. The reason I am picking the Pats is two-fold: First, all the talking heads seem to be picking the Colts and truthiness (knowledge that comes from the gut) is making me lean toward New England. The other reason I am picking the Pats is that I want Indy to win. Each round so far I have picked to Colts to lose and they have won, so I'm trying it again. Just for fun, I think Vinatieri misses a game-tying opportunity.
